By John Victor D. Ordoñez, Reporter
THE PHILIPPINES should not rely heavily on the US to build its defense capabilities in the face of its sea dispute with China, political analysts said, citing the expected “transactional” approach to bilateral ties under a second Trump presidency.
“President Trump has not been shy saying that everything the US does in the international field has a price,” Michael Henry Ll. Yusingco, a fellow at the Ateneo de Manila University Policy Center, said in a Facebook Messenger chat.
“The Marcos administration should not be naïve to think that the US will act in the name of world peace or international law. It would be better to anticipate that the America First Policy may be applied in the literal sense by Trump,” he added.
Last week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio talked about China’s “dangerous and destabilizing actions in the South China Sea” with Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique A. Manalo and underscored the “ironclad” US defense commitment to Manila.
The US is the Philippines’ major security partner, with a 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty compelling both nations to defend each other in case of an armed attack.
The Philippines has been embroiled in wrangles at sea with China in the past two years and the two countries have faced off regularly around disputed features in the South China Sea that fall within Manila’s exclusive economic zone.
China claims almost the entire South China Sea, a conduit for more than $3 trillion of annual ship-borne commerce, including parts claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei. The Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague ruled in 2016 that China’s claims had no legal basis, a ruling Beijing rejects.
“He (Mr. Rubio) merely reiterates and reaffirms the official policy of the US towards the Philippines,” Rommel C. Banlaoi, president of the Philippine Society for International Security Studies, said in a Viber message.
“What we need to see is how the Trump administration will implement this policy amidst persistent conflicts in the South China Sea.”
The US military has moved its Typhon launchers, which can fire multipurpose missiles up to thousands of kilometers, from Laoag airfield to another location on the island of Luzon, a senior Philippine government source said on Jan. 23, according to Reuters.
The Tomahawk cruise missiles in the launchers can hit targets in both China and Russia from the Philippines. The SM-6 missiles it also carries can strike air or sea targets more than 200 km away.
China’s Foreign Ministry accused the Philippines on Jan. 23 of creating tension and confrontation in the region, and urged it to “correct its wrong practices.”
The deployment of the missile system is “extremely irresponsible” for regional security, Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told a news briefing last week.
Typhons are relatively easy to produce — drawing on large stockpiles and designs that have been around for a decade or more — and could help the US and its allies catch up quickly in an Indo-Pacific missile race in which China has a big lead.
Security engagements between the allies have soared under Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr., who has moved closer to Washington and allowed the expansion of military bases that American forces could access, including facilities facing the democratically governed island of Taiwan, which China claims as its own.
“I believe that we are off to a good start, but then again, it would depend on how well we are able to elevate our agency in the eyes of Washington as well, so we have to do more in that regard so it’s safe to say that the Philippine-US alliance remains intact,” Don McClain Gill, who teaches foreign relations at De La Salle University, said in a Facebook Messenger chat.
US AID PAUSEMeanwhile, Senate Minority Floor Leader Aquilino Martin “Koko” D. Pimentel said the government should not be fazed by the Trump government’s decision to freeze new funding foreign assistance programs for 90-days.
“We should learn to live with this decision,” he told reporters in a Viber message. “The Philippines should not be dependent on foreign aid, although we should be welcoming of all aid without strings and conditions that are extended to us.”
The US Department of State on Jan. 20 issued an executive order that froze foreign funding, with exceptions for emergency food programs and military aid to Israel and Egypt.
US President Donald J. Trump ordered the 90-day pause in foreign development assistance pending a review of these programs in relation to his administration’s foreign policy.
Washington provided foreign aid worth $60 billion in 2023 or about 1% of the US budget.
“The United States foreign aid industry and bureaucracy are not aligned with American interests and in many cases antithetical to American values,” according to a copy of the order published on the US Department of State website.
“They serve to destabilize world peace by promoting ideas in foreign countries that are directly inverse to harmonious and stable relations internal to and among countries.”
“[Pausing foreign aid] is not a good indicator especially considering there were previous promises from US Foreign Affairs officials that our working relationship and projects will not change,” Hansley A. Juliano, who teaches political science at the Ateneo de Manila University, said in a Facebook Messenger chat.
“It potentially belies the assumption of the security sector that the US will remain a reliable Philippine security partner.”
The Southeast Asian nation, one of the weakest in the world in terms of military capability, is important to Washington’s efforts to push back against China, which claims the South China Sea almost in its entirety.
